変化する気候におけるエルニーニョ
Sang-Wook Yeh1, Jong-Seong Kug, Boris Dewitte
1Climate Change and Coastal Disaster Research Department, Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, 426-744, Ansan, Korea. swyeh@kordi.re.kr
Nature
|September 26, 2009
まとめ
地球温暖化は,中央太平洋のエルニーニョ現象の頻度を増やす可能性があります. 東太平洋のエルニーニョ現象からのこのシフトは,赤道太平洋の熱帯が平らになるにつれて発生すると予測されています.
科学分野:
- 気候学 気候学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 気候変動科学 気候変動科学
背景:
- エルニーニョ現象は,世界の気候変動の主要な原動力である.
- 近年,太平洋中央部のエルニーニョ (CP-El Niño) 現象が増加しており,太平洋東部のエルニーニョ (EP-El Niño) 現象と異なる.
研究 の 目的:
- 地球温暖化シナリオにおけるCP-エルニニョとEP-エルニニョの比率の予測変化を調査する.
- 気候変動がエルニーニョの特徴をどのように変化させるかを理解する.
主な方法:
- クープレッドモデルの相互比較プロジェクト第3段階 (CMIP3) のマルチモデルのデータ分析.
- 歴史的データに基づくエルニーニョの指標の計算.
- 予測されるCP-エルニーニョとEP-エルニーニョの周波数の比較.
主要な成果:
- 人為的な気候変動により,CP-エルニニョの頻度はEP-エルニニョに比べて増加すると予測されています.
- 選択された気候モデルは,CP-エルニーニョ/EP-エルニーニョの発生比率が5倍に増加する可能性を示唆しています.
- このシフトは,赤道太平洋における熱帯の平ら化と関連している.
結論:
- 将来の気候変動は,東太平洋のエルニーニョ現象よりも,中央太平洋のエルニーニョ現象の発生を好む可能性が高い.
- これらの変化を理解することは,将来の気候影響と社会経済的な影響を予測するために不可欠です.
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