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グローバル上部海洋の強力な温暖化.
John M Lyman1, Simon A Good, Viktor V Gouretski
1Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA. john.lyman@noaa.gov
Nature
|May 21, 2010
まとめ
海洋温暖化は重要ですが,測定の不確実性,特に使い捨てバチサーモグラフ (XBT) データからの不確実性,インパクトの推定です. それにもかかわらず,海洋の熱含有量では明確な温暖化傾向が続いている.
科学分野:
- 海洋学 海洋学とは
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 地球システム科学 地球システム科学
背景:
- 主に上層海洋で,人類による温室効果ガスの影響による,数十年に渡る海洋温暖化シグナルが観測されています.
- 上層海洋は,地球上の余剰エネルギーの大部分を吸収しますが,海洋温暖化データの不確実性は,気候の評価を妨げています.
- 上海の熱含有量異常 (OHCA) と熱帯海面上昇の異なる推定値には不一致がある.
研究 の 目的:
- 1993年から2008年の間にOHCA曲線の変動に寄与する不確実性の原因を調査する.
- OHCAの見積もりに対する使い捨てバチサーモグラフ (XBT) データバイアスの修正の影響に焦点を当てること.
- データの不確実性にもかかわらず,海洋温暖化傾向のより堅実な評価を提供するために.
主な方法:
- 1993年から2008年までの上部海洋の熱含有量データにおける様々な不確実性源の分析.
- 主要な歴史的データソースである使い捨てバチサーモグラフ (XBT) データのバイアス補正方法の詳細な検討.
- 複数のXBTバイアス補正アプローチを使用して複合OHCA曲線の作成.
主要な成果:
- XBTバイアスの修正方法の選択に起因する不確実性は,OHCA曲線間の変動を引き起こす支配的要因です.
- 不確実性にもかかわらず,統計的に有意な線形温暖化傾向である0.64 Wm−2 (90%CI:0.530.75 Wm−2) が1993年から2008年にかけて確認された.
- 年間間変動パターンは,OHCAの推定に使用された方法論によって大きく異なります.
結論:
- XBTバイアス修正の選択は,海洋熱量異常の推定に大きく影響する.
- 1993年から2008年の間,海洋温暖化傾向が強く,統計的に有意であることが確認され,海洋の熱吸収が現実であることを強調しています.
- データの同化とバイアスの修正に関するさらなる研究は,気候モデル評価と海平面予算の精錬に不可欠です.
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