気候変動と世界的なマラリアの衰退
Peter W Gething1, David L Smith, Anand P Patil
1Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK. peter.gething@zoo.ox.ac.uk
Nature
|May 21, 2010
まとめ
世界的なマラリアの感染範囲と流行は,気候変動による増加の主張に反して,過去"世紀に大幅に減少しました. 効果的な対策は,マラリアに対する予測される気候の影響よりも大きな影響を及ぼします.
科学分野:
- グローバル・エピデミオロジー
- 気候変動が感染症に与える影響
- 公共衛生政策 公共衛生政策 公共衛生政策
背景:
- 気候変動はマラリアの蔓延と死亡率を増やすと提案されています.
- 歴史的地図は,Plasmodium falciparumマラリアの分布の変化を示しています.
- マラリアの疫学を理解することは,世界保健政策にとって極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 1900年以来マラリアの地理的範囲の縮小を定量化する.
- 過去100年間にマラリアの流行が世界的に減少したかを測定する.
- 歴史的変化と予測される気候変動の影響を比較し,対策の効果を制御する.
主な方法:
- 歴史的および現代的なマラリア分布地図の比較分析.
- 約1900年以降のマラリア流行の変化の定量化.
- 観測された傾向と予測された気候変動の影響と公衆衛生への介入の影響の比較.
主要な成果:
- 世界的なマラリアの範囲と流行は1900年以来大幅に減少しています.
- 観測された減少は,気温上昇が世界的なマラリアを増加させるという主張と矛盾しています.
- 予測される気候変動の影響は,歴史的な減少と達成可能な制御手段の効果よりも小さい数量です.
結論:
- 気候変動が現在のマラリアの負担を増加させているという主張は,観測された世界的な傾向によってほとんど裏付けられていない.
- 効果的な公衆衛生の介入は,マラリアに対する気候変動の予測された影響を大幅に上回ります.
- 将来のマラリアの予測は,歴史的文脈と制御措置の強力な影響を考慮する必要があります.
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