既存のエネルギーインフラストラクチャによる将来のCO2排出量と気候変動
Steven J Davis1, Ken Caldeira, H Damon Matthews
1Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. sjdavis@carnegie.stanford.edu
まとめ
既存の化石燃料のインフラストラクチャは,将来の二酸化炭素排出量と地球温暖化に重大な影響を及ぼすことを約束します. 最悪の気候変動の影響を回避するために,代替案の緊急開発が不可欠です.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 環境科学 環境科学
- 地質物理学 地質物理学とは地質物理学です.
背景:
- 気候変動を遅らせるには,政治的,技術的,地質物理的システムの惰性の克服が必要である.
- 既存のインフラストラクチャからの地球物理学的温暖化へのコミットメントは,重要な,しかししばしば量化されていない要因です.
研究 の 目的:
- 既存の化石燃料を燃やす装置からの将来の二酸化炭素排出量と温暖化へのコミットメントを定量化するために.
- これらのコミットされた排出から生じる潜在的な地球温暖化と大気中のCO2濃度を推定する.
主な方法:
- 既存のインフラストラクチャによる化石燃料の燃焼による累積的な将来の二酸化炭素 (CO2) 排出量の計算.
- これらの予測された排出量に関連した平均地球温暖化と大気中のCO2濃度の推定.
主要な成果:
- 既存のインフラストラクチャは,2010年から2060年の間に化石燃料の燃焼から発生する496ギガトンのCO2 (282×701 GtCO2) を排出することを世界的に約束しています.
- このコミットメントは,工業化以前の水準より平均1.3°C (1.11.4°C) の温暖化に対応し,CO2濃度が430ppm以下となる.
結論:
- 気候変動排出量の最も脅威的な源は,まだ構築されていない.
- 代替エネルギー源が迅速に開発され導入されない限り,CO2排出インフラの大幅な拡張が期待されています.
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