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気候によって引き起こされる範囲のシフトにおける人口的補償と転換点
Daniel F Doak1, William F Morris
1Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071, USA. ddoak@uwyo.edu
Nature
|October 22, 2010
まとめ
気候の温暖化により,種は生息範囲を変化させていますが,人口統計学的変化により,いくつかの植物が回復力を発揮しています. この緩衝効果は一時的であり,継続的な温暖化は人口減少につながる可能性があります.
科学分野:
- エコロジー エコロジー エコロジー
- 気候変動 生物学
- 植物生態学 植物生態学
背景:
- 気候の温暖化により,種は範囲を極点方向に,あるいはより高い高地に移動することが予想されます.
- 観測された範囲のシフトはしばしば特異的であり,一部の種は収縮する代わりに範囲をシフトしたり拡大したりしません.
- 範囲の移転の回復力を理解することは,継続中の気候変動に対する種の脆弱性を予測するために重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 北米のツンドラ植物における範囲の移り変わりの背後にある人口学的メカニズムを調査する.
- 補償的な人口動態の変化が,気候の温暖化に対して南部の人口を緩衝するかどうかを判断する.
- この緩衝効果が継続的な温暖化下で長期にわたって持続するかどうかを評価する.
主な方法:
- 2つのツンドラ植物種の北と南の集団における人口統計 (生存率,採用率,成長率) の比較分析.
- 範囲の広い集団における長期的なモニタリング.
- 統計モデリングにより,人口統計を気候変数と関連付けます.
主要な成果:
- 南部の人口は生存率と新生率が低いが,個々の植物の成長率が高く,補償的な人口統計的反応を示唆した.
- 南部の人口の増加率は,これらの補償的な変化のために,北部の人口よりも低くはなかった.
- 適度な温暖化で改善した人口率は,極端な温暖化年において低下し,回復力の潜在的な限界を示しています.
結論:
- 補償的な人口動態の変化は,気候温暖化に対する植物集団を一時的にバッファリングし,範囲の移転を遅らせることができます.
- このバッファリングは,特に継続的または極端な温暖化下では,無期限に持続する可能性は低い.
- すべての人口プロセスの長期的,幅広いモニタリングは,人口学的補償を検出し,非線形的な範囲のシフトを予測するために不可欠です.
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