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Updated: Jun 7, 2026

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
21世紀における世界の生物多様性のシナリオ
Henrique M Pereira1, Paul W Leadley, Vânia Proença
1Centro de Biologia Ambiental, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal. hpereira@fc.ul.pt
まとめ
将来の生物多様性の減少は継続すると予測されていますが,減少の程度は大きく異なります. 政策の介入と固有の不確実性は,グローバルな生態系にとって幅広い潜在的な結果を生み出します.
科学分野:
- エコロジー エコロジー エコロジー
- 環境科学 環境科学
- 保護生物学の保護生物学
背景:
- 定量的なシナリオは,生物多様性に対する社会経済発展の影響を評価するためにますます重要になっています.
- 将来の生物多様性の傾向を理解するには,陸上,淡水,海洋の生態系を分析する必要があります.
研究 の 目的:
- 様々な社会経済的な経路の下での世界的な生物多様性シナリオを分析する.
- 絶滅や生息地の喪失を含む,予測される生物多様性変化の範囲を評価する.
主な方法:
- グローバルな陸地,淡水,海洋生物多様性に関する定量的なシナリオを活用した.
- 絶滅,種の豊富さの変化,生息地の喪失,分布のシフトなどの指標を用いて評価された影響.
- モデルの予測を観察データと比較した.
主要な成果:
- シナリオは一貫して,21世紀を通じて生物多様性の減少を継続すると予測しています.
- 予測される生物多様性変化の範囲は,これまで考えられていたよりも広い.
- 生物多様性の損失を軽減するための政策介入には大きな機会が存在します.
結論:
- 生物多様性の減少は継続的な傾向ですが,その深刻さは事前に決定されていません.
- 政策決定と予測の不確実性は,将来の生物多様性成果に大きな影響を与えます.
- 介入戦略は,生物多様性喪失の軌道を大幅に変えることができる.
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