情報を保存し,通信し,計算する世界の技術能力です
Martin Hilbert1, Priscila López
1Annenberg School of Communication, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA. mhilbert@usc.edu
まとめ
世界的な情報技術能力は1986年から2007年の間に急増した. コンピューティングパワーは年率58%で最も速く成長したが,デジタルストレージと電気通信も著しく増加した.
科学分野:
- 情報科学 情報科学
- コンピュータサイエンス コンピュータサイエンス
- テクノロジー研究 テクノロジー研究
背景:
- 技術の進歩は,情報を処理し,保存する人類の能力を劇的に高めました.
- グローバルな情報技術の規模と成長を理解することは,社会的,経済的分析に不可欠です.
研究 の 目的:
- 情報の保存,通信,計算に関する世界の技術能力を定量化する.
- 1986年から2007年までのこれらの能力の成長傾向を分析する.
- これらの分野におけるアナログ技術からデジタル技術への移行を評価する.
主な方法:
- 60のアナログ技術とデジタル技術のグローバルな技術能力の推定.
- 1986年から2007年の追跡データです.
- ストレージ,通信,コンピューティング能力の分析.
主要な成果:
- 2007年,世界のストレージ容量は2.9×10^20バイト,通信容量は2×10^21バイト,コンピューティング容量は6.4×10^18命令/秒であった.
- 汎用コンピューティングの容量は,年間58%増加しました.
- 通信能力は年間28%増加し,情報を保存する能力は年間23%増加した.
- 放送 (一方的な情報拡散) は年6%でわずかに成長した.
- 通信は1990年までに主にデジタル化され (2007年には99.9%),デジタルストレージは2000年代初頭にアナログを上回った (2007年には94%デジタル化).
結論:
- 情報処理のための人類の技術的能力は,特にコンピューティングと電気通信において,指数関数的に拡大しています.
- デジタル革命は,情報保存と通信を根本的に変えました.
- デジタル技術の指数関数的な成長は,将来的に機会と課題の両方を提示します.
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