絶え間なく変化する"背景"の平流層のエアロゾール層と地球規模の気候変動
S Solomon1, J S Daniel, R R Neely
1Chemical Sciences Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USA. susan.solomon@colorado.edu
まとめ
ストラトスフィアのエアロゾールは恒定ではなく変数であり,2000年以来増加しています. この増加は,地球温暖化を減らし,気候モデルの予測に影響を与える,負の放射線強制を引き起こしました.
科学分野:
- 大気科学 大気科学
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 地球システム科学 地球システム科学
背景:
- 以前は恒定と考えられていた平流層のエアロゾール層は,現在では持続的に変動すると理解されています.
- 大規模な火山噴火は,平流圏のエアロゾール変化の唯一の原動力ではありません.
研究 の 目的:
- ストラトスフィアのエアロゾール豊富さの最近の傾向を分析するために.
- 観測された平流圏のエアロゾール変化に関連した放射線強制を定量化するために.
- これらの変化が,地球温暖化に関する気候モデル予測に及ぼす影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- グローバルに近い衛星エアロゾールデータを含む複数の独立したデータセットの分析.
- ストラトスフィアのエアロゾール濃度の変化に基づく放射力強制の計算.
- 観測されたエアロゾールの傾向と気候モデルの仮定の比較.
主要な成果:
- ストラトスフィアのエアロゾールの豊富さは,2000年以来,明らかに増加しています.
- この増加は,約 -0.1 W/m2 の負の放射線強制をもたらし,最近の地球温暖化を緩和しました.
- 歴史的データ (1960年−1990年) は,さらに約 -0.1 W/m2 の負の放射力フォッシングを示唆しています.
結論:
- ストラトスフィアのエアロゾールの増加が観測され,地球温暖化が活発に減少しています.
- これらのエアロゾール変化を考慮しない気候モデルは,将来の放射性強制と地球温暖化を過大評価する可能性が高い.
- これらのエアロゾールの継続的な存在または増加は,気候変動の予測の調整を必要とします.
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