市民紛争は,地球規模の気候変動と関連しています

Solomon M Hsiang¹, Kyle C Meng, Mark A Cane

¹School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027, USA. shsiang@princeton.edu

Nature

|August 26, 2011

まとめ

世界的な気候変動,特にエルニニョ・サザンオシレーション (ENSO) イベントは,熱帯地域の内戦のリスクを大幅に高めています. この研究は,気候パターンを現代社会の安定と紛争発生と関連付けています.

科学分野:

気候科学気候科学
政治科学は政治学を学んでいる.
社会学社会学社会学とは

背景:

以前の研究では,歴史的な社会崩壊における気候の役割が示唆されていたが,現代の紛争の直接的な証拠は得られなかった.
エルニーニョ・サザン・オシレーション (ENSO) は,年間間の気候変動の変動に影響を与える支配的な世界的な気候パターンです.

研究の目的:

エルニーニョ・サザン・オシレーション (ENSO) が世界の内戦パターンを駆動するという仮説を定量的に検証する.
ENSOの紛争への影響に関する歴史的議論を現代に延ばす.

主な方法:

1950年から2004年までの世界的な内戦データの分析.
エルニーニョ・サザン・オシレーション (ENSO) を,主力的な年間間の気候モードとして検討.

主要な成果:

熱帯地域で新たな内戦が起こる確率は,ラニーニャと比べてエルニニョの年に倍増する.
エルニーニョ・サザンオシレーション (ENSO) イベントは,1950年以来のすべての内戦の21%を占める可能性がある.

結論:

この研究は,惑星規模の気候変動と世界的な内戦を結びつける最初の直接的な証拠を提供します.
現代社会の社会的な安定性は,世界の気候パターン,特にENSOと密接に関連しています.

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