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16歳から19歳のドライバーが乗った自動車の免許証の取得と致命的な事故
Scott V Masten1, Robert D Foss, Stephen W Marshall
1California Department of Motor Vehicles, Research and Development Branch, 2570 24th St/MS H-126, Sacramento, CA 95818-2606, USA. scott.masten@dmv.ca.gov
JAMA
|September 16, 2011
まとめ
より強力な卒業運転免許 (GDL) プログラムにより,16歳のドライバーの死亡事故が著しく減少しました. しかし,これらのGDLプログラムは18歳のドライバーの死亡事故のわずかな増加と関連していました.
科学分野:
- 交通安全に関する研究
- 公共衛生政策 公共衛生政策とは
- 十代のドライバーの行動
背景:
- 米国における段階的な運転免許 (GDL) 制度は,若いドライバーに制限を課している.
- GDLには,監督された運転,中間的な無監督運転,夜間運転および旅客輸送の制限が含まれています.
研究 の 目的:
- GDLプログラムと16歳から19歳のドライバーの死亡事故の関連性を評価する.
- 厳格なGDL規制が死亡事故率の減少または増加と相関するかどうかを判断する.
主な方法:
- アメリカ合衆国50州とワシントンDC全域の1986年から2007年のクロスセクションタイムシリーズのデータを集約した分析.
- 16歳から19歳のドライバーを巻き込んだ死亡事故の四半期発生率を調べた.
- より強力なGDLプログラム (夜間と乗客の制限) と,より弱いGDLプログラムまたはGDLなしのプログラムの比率を比較しました.
主要な成果:
- 致死事故の発生率は年齢とともに増加し,18歳と19歳でピークに達した.
- より強力なGDLプログラムは,16歳のドライバーの死亡事故の26%の減少と関連していた (RR, 0.74;95%CI, 0.65-0.84).
- 逆に,より強力なGDLプログラムが18歳のドライバーの死亡事故の12%の増加に関連していた (RR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.01-1.23).
結論:
- 厳格なGDLプログラムは,初心者16歳のドライバーの致命的な衝突率を効果的に低下させます.
- GDLが強い18歳のドライバーの間で,予期せぬ死亡事故発生率の上昇が観察されました.
- 18歳のドライバーのリスクの増加を理解し,対処し,GDL戦略を洗練するためにさらなる研究が必要です.
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