過剰な自信の進化について
Dominic D P Johnson1, James H Fowler
1Politics and International Relations, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9LD, UK. dominic.johnson@ed.ac.uk
Nature
|September 17, 2011
まとめ
過剰な自信は,自分が現実よりも優れていると信じることであり,個人のフィットネスを最大限に高め,全人口の過剰な自信につながる可能性があります. この進化的戦略は,資源の利益が競争コストを上回るときに安定します.
科学分野:
- 進化生物学の進化生物学について
- 行動経済学は,行動経済学である.
- 心理学 心理学とは
背景:
- 自信は,多くの分野で成功するために不可欠です.
- 過剰な自信,または誇張された自己信念は,野心と粘り強さなどの利点を提供することができます.
- しかし,過剰な自信は,悪い決断にもつながり,その進化的安定性をパズルにしています.
研究 の 目的:
- エージェントベースのモデルを使用して,過剰な自信の進化的安定性を調査する.
- 正確な自己評価ではなく,過剰な自信が進化的に安定した戦略である条件を決定する.
主な方法:
- 異なるレベルの自信 (自信と過度の自信) を有する集団をシミュレートした進化モデルを開発した.
- 異なる資源競争シナリオの下で異なる信念戦略のフィットネス結果と安定性を分析しました.
主要な成果:
- 過剰な自信は個人の健康状態を最大化し,特定の条件下で進化的に安定した集団につながることが判明しました.
- 正確で偏見のない自己信念戦略は,限られた環境条件下でのみ安定していた.
- 人口の過度の自信の蔓延は,資源の利益と競争コストのバランスに関連しています.
結論:
- 過剰な自信は,進化的に有利な戦略であり,潜在的マイナスにも関わらず成功を促進する可能性があります.
- この発見は,人間の集団における過度の自信の持続と,さまざまな社会現象におけるその役割を説明するのに役立ちます.
- 過剰な自信の進化的根拠を理解することは,その負の影響を軽減するための鍵です.
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