海面温度異常を用いて,南米における火災季節の深刻さを予測する
Yang Chen1, James T Randerson, Douglas C Morton
1Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA. yang.chen@uci.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|November 15, 2011
まとめ
南米の火災活動は,海面の温度と関連しています. 気候指標は,火災の季節の重さを予測し,森林管理を支援し,空気質を改善することができます.
科学分野:
- 環境科学 環境科学
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 林業 林業 林業 林業 林業
背景:
- 南米での火災は,森林の劣化と土地利用の変化による大きな炭素排出につながります.
- 火災活動の要因を理解することは,その環境への影響を軽減するために極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 南米における火災活動と海面温度の年間変動の関係を調査する.
- 気候インデックスを用いて火災シーズンの重度の予測モデルを開発する.
主な方法:
- 南米における火災の歴史データの分析.
- 火災活動と気候指数,特に海洋ニニョ指数と大西洋多年周期振動指数の相関分析.
- 気候指標を組み合わせた実証モデルを開発し,火災シーズンの重さを予測する.
主要な成果:
- オセアニック・ニニョ・インデックスは,アマゾンの東部の火災活動との相関を示した.
- 大西洋多年期振動指数は,アマゾンの南部と南西部の火災とより強く結びついていた.
- これらの指標を組み合わせた経験的モデルは, 3-5ヶ月のリードタイムで地域的な火災シーズンの重さを正確に予測します.
結論:
- 海洋ニノ指数や大西洋多年周期振動などの気候指標は,南米の火災パターンに大きく影響している.
- 開発された経験的モデルは,森林の火災に対する脆弱性を予測する早期警告システムにとって貴重なツールを提供します.
- このアプローチは,森林管理戦略を強化し,気候規制と空気の質に利益をもたらします.
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