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最後の氷河期最大期の温度再構築から推定された気候感受性
Andreas Schmittner1, Nathan M Urban, Jeremy D Shakun
1College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331-5503, USA. aschmitt@coas.oregonstate.edu
まとめ
この研究では,均衡状態の気候感受性を改訂し,より低い2.3Kの中間値を見つけました.これは,炭素排出による迫り来る極端な気候変動の確率が低下していることを示唆しています.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは
- 気候モデリング
背景:
- CO2の倍増に対する均衡気候感度 (ECS) の不確実性は,気候変動の影響評価を妨げています.
- 以前のECSの見積もりは,66%の確率範囲で2〜4.5Kの2Kの中央値を示唆しており,その中には,大きなインパクトのシナリオの小さなチャンスが含まれています.
- 高いECS値は,深刻な,避けられない気候変動のリスクを暗示しています.
研究 の 目的:
- 気候モデルと古気候データを統合することにより,均衡気候感受性 (ECS) の推定を精査する.
- 将来の人類による炭素排出量の潜在的な影響をめぐる不確実性を軽減する.
- 極端な気候変動イベントの確率を再評価する.
主な方法:
- 最後の氷河期最大期からの海と陸面の温度の再構築を組み合わせた.
- 古代気候データを含む気候モデルシミュレーションを利用した.
- ECSの見積もりを制限するために,温度データを分析した.
主要な成果:
- 下位の中央ECSは2.3Kと推定されています.
- 1.7〜2.6KのECSの66%の確率の範囲を削減しました.
- モデルによる将来の予測に適用される古気候の制約は,急速で極端な気候変化の可能性が低いことを示していることが実証されました.
結論:
- 洗練されたECSの見積もりは,以前の評価と比較して,迫り来る深刻な気候変動の確率が低いことを示唆しています.
- 古代気候のデータ統合は,気候の感受性のより限定された見方を提供します.
- 将来の気候変動の影響は,より高いECS確率によって以前に示されたものより極端ではないかもしれません.
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