26.5°Nの月間平均の大西洋南極逆転循環の多年予測
Daniela Matei1, Johanna Baehr, Johann H Jungclaus
1Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany. Daniela.Matei@zmaw.de
まとめ
大西洋南極逆転循環 (AMOC) の予測は,今から4年先まで可能になりました. 海洋循環の予測におけるこの画期的な進歩は,気候の予測可能性に関する新しい洞察を提供します.
科学分野:
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 地質物理学 地質物理学とは地質物理学です.
背景:
- 大西洋南極反転循環 (AMOC) の変化を予測することは,歴史的に困難でした.
- AMOCは,世界の気候規制において重要な役割を果たしています.
研究 の 目的:
- 26.5°Nの月間平均AMOC強度の予測可能性を実証する.
- AMOCの予測可能性に貢献する重要な要因を特定する.
主な方法:
- 2008年1月から2011年1月までの間に初期化されたアンサンブル予測を使用しています.
- 盆地全体にわたる上部中部海洋の地質学的輸送と上部海洋のゾーン密度の差異を分析する.
主要な成果:
- 月間平均AMOC濃度の予測可能性は,最大4年先まで実証されています.
- 予測スキルの主要な源泉として,上海の地質学的輸送を特定した.
- 予測では,少なくとも2014年まで26.5°Nで安定したAMOCを示しており,2010年には一時的に弱まりました.
結論:
- 気候予測の重要なキャリアとしてAMOCを確立しました.
- AMOCの予測における上部海域のダイナミクスの重要性を強調した.
- 長期的な気候予測と影響評価のための新しい道を開いた.
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