同時に,短期的な気候変動の緩和と,人間の健康と食料安全保障の改善を図る
Drew Shindell1, Johan C I Kuylenstierna, Elisabetta Vignati
1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA. drew.t.shindell@nasa.gov
まとめ
14の排出量管理措置を実施することで,地球温暖化と大気汚染を大幅に削減できます. この戦略は,何百万もの早期死亡を回避し,作物の収穫を向上させ,実質的な経済的利益をもたらします.
科学分野:
- 大気化学 大気化学
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 公衆衛生は公衆衛生である.
背景:
- トロポスフィアのオゾンとブラックカーボン (BC) は,大気質の悪化と地球温暖化の両方に大きく貢献しています.
- 現在の排出制御技術と慣行は,これらの汚染物質を軽減するための潜在的な経路を提供します.
研究 の 目的:
- トロポスフィアのオゾンとブラック・カーボン (BC) の削減のための効果的な排出制御措置を特定する.
- これらの措置が地球温暖化,空気質,作物収穫量に与える影響を定量化する.
主な方法:
- 約400の排出規制措置を考慮した.
- メタンとBCの排出をターゲットとする14の主要な措置の特定.
- 地球温暖化,早死,作物収穫量に対する予測された影響の分析.
主要な成果:
- 14の選択された措置からなる戦略は,2050年までに予測される地球温暖化の平均を約0.5°C削減します.
- この戦略により,室外大気汚染による年間070万~470万件の早死が回避されます.
- オゾン層の減少により,年間作物生産量は3,000万トンから1,3500万トン増加すると予測されています.
結論:
- メタン排出量の削減は,大幅な経済的利益をもたらし,その価値は削減コストを大幅に上回ります.
- 選択されたコントロールは,二酸化炭素削減措置と比較して,より短い時間スケールで気候上の利益をもたらします.
- これらの措置を二酸化炭素の削減と並行して実施すると,2°Cの温暖化水準を上回るリスクが著しく低下する.
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