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絶滅と気候変動

Chris D Thomas1, Mark Williamson

  • 1Department of Biology, University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5DD, UK. chris.thomas@york.ac.uk

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|February 24, 2012
PubMed
まとめ
この要約は機械生成です。

種-地域関係 (SARs) は,絶滅のリスクを過大評価する可能性があります. この研究は,生息地と気候変動による生物多様性の損失を評価するのに,先の主張に異議を唱え,先住民と地域の関係 (EARs) がより適切であると主張しています.

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科学分野:

  • エコロジー エコロジー エコロジー
  • 生物多様性 科学 科学 生物多様性
  • 保護生物学の保護生物学

背景:

  • 種-地域関係 (SARs) は,生息地喪失または気候変動による絶滅のリスクを推定するために一般的に使用されます.
  • 彼とハッベル (2011) は,SARsの代わりに,地方特有の地域関係 (EARs) を使用することを提案し,SARベースの推定値があまりにも高いことを示唆しました.

研究 の 目的:

  • 絶滅リスク評価のためのSARsとEARsに関するHe and Hubbell (2011) が提示した方法論と結論を批判的に評価する.
  • 絶滅リスクのSAR推定が必ずしも偏っているわけではないこと,そしてHeとHubbellが使用した経験的データが彼らの分析に不適切である可能性があることを示すために.

主な方法:

  • 種と面積の関係 (SAR) 分析に使用される統計的方法の再評価.
  • 種分布と生息地の面積に関する経験的データの分析.
  • SARsから派生した絶滅リスクの推定値の比較と,地方特有の地域関係 (EARs) の比較.

主要な成果:

  • 絶滅の危険性に関するSARの推定値は,潜在的にバイアスしており,本質的にあまりにも高くありません.
  • HeとHubbellが利用した経験的データは,強固な絶滅リスク計算には適していません.
  • 気候変動による絶滅リスクの低下を示唆する以前の議論は欠陥があり,種の反応は将来の重大なリスクを示している.

結論:

  • SARは,HeとHubbellの主張に反して,絶滅のリスクを評価するための有効なツールであり続けています.
  • 種は既に,将来の大規模な絶滅リスクと一致する気候変動への反応を示しています.
  • 生物多様性の損失を正確に評価するには,方法論と適切な経験的データを慎重に検討する必要があります.