熱帯炭素の気候変動に対する感受性は,二酸化炭素の変動によって制約されています
Peter M Cox1, David Pearson, Ben B Booth
1College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK. p.m.cox@exeter.ac.uk
Nature
|February 8, 2013
まとめ
トロピカルフォレスト 熱帯雨林
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- エコロジー エコロジー エコロジー
- 地球システム科学 地球システム科学
背景:
- 熱帯雨林からの炭素排出は,気候変動を悪化させる可能性があります.
- 気候モデルは,この効果の不確実性を示しています.
- モデルはCO2による炭素貯蔵の増加を予測しているが,温暖化による貯蔵減少を予測している.
研究 の 目的:
- 熱帯雨林の炭素貯蔵に関する気候モデルの不確実性を減らす.
- 熱帯の土地の炭素貯蔵と大気中のCO2の増加率との関係を確立する.
- 気候変化に対する熱帯の土地の炭素の感受性を制限する.
主な方法:
- クープリングされた気候・炭素・サイクル・モデルのアンサンブルを分析.
- モデルの感度間の出現する線形関係の識別.
- 大気中のCO2と熱帯の気温の現代的な観測と統合.
主要な成果:
- 線形的な関係は,熱帯の土地の炭素の温暖化に対する感受性を制限する.
- 温暖化は,熱帯地域からケルビンあたり53±17ギガトンの炭素を放出すると推定されています.
- これは,CO2誘発の気候変動でアマゾンの衰退のリスクが低いことを示唆しています.
結論:
- この研究は,熱帯の土地の気候変動に対する炭素感受性に対するより厳しい制約を提供します.
- CO2の受精効果が有意である場合,アマゾンの死滅のリスクを減らすことが示されています.
- 温暖化はCO2以外の要因によって引き起こされている場合,熱帯地域からの炭素損失の確率はより高いことが示唆されています.
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