北極の高緯度における最近の極端な気温は,過去600年間で前例のないものです
Martin P Tingley1, Peter Huybers
1Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, 20 Oxford Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA. tingley@fas.harvard.edu
Nature
|April 13, 2013
まとめ
最近の高緯度の極端な気温は,過去600年間で前例のないものです. 気候プロキシデータは,2010年のような最近の暖かい夏が,歴史的な変動を上回り,気候変動を示唆していることを示しています.
科学分野:
- 古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 統計モデリング 統計モデリング
背景:
- 高北緯度における極端な温度現象の頻度を評価するには,長期的な気候データが必要です.
- 過去の温度再構築は,最近の温暖化が前世紀と比較して異常であることを示しています.
研究 の 目的:
- 過去600年間,北緯度の高い地域で発生した極端な温度現象の頻度と規模を評価する.
- 長期的な気候変動の文脈で最近の温暖化を評価する.
主な方法:
- 複数の気候プロキシ記録 (楽器,樹輪,氷核,湖の沈殿物) の階層的なベイジアン分析.
- 過去の気温履歴の空間的に解明された再構築.
- 極端な出来事の発生の確率的評価.
主要な成果:
- 北極の高緯度における最近の温暖な極端な気温は,過去600年間で前例のないものです.
- 2005年,2007年,2010年,2011年の夏は,空間的に平均すると1400年以降のどの年よりも暖かかった (P > 0.95).
- 2010年の夏は,ロシア西部 (P > 0.99) と,グリーンランド西部とカナダの北極圏 (P > 0.90) で600年で最も暑かった.
結論:
- 最近の極端に暑い夏は,歴史的な変動を大幅に上回り,静止的な気候からの脱却を示唆しています.
- 観測された極端は,平均気温の上昇と恒常的な時空の変動と一致しています.
- 長期的な気候プロキシデータは,極端な天候現象の変化する性質を理解するために不可欠です.
関連する概念動画
Global Climate Change
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
What is Weather?
Overview
Factors Influencing Microbial Growth: Temperature
Microorganisms display remarkable adaptations, enabling them to thrive in diverse ecological niches across a wide range of temperatures. Temperature profoundly influences microbial growth by affecting enzymatic activity, membrane fluidity, and other cellular processes.Each microorganism operates within a specific temperature range defined by three cardinal points: minimum, optimum, and maximum. Below the minimum temperature, membranes lose fluidity, halting transport processes. Above the...
Temperature Measurement Sites
A thermometer measures body temperature. The common sites for measuring body temperature are the oral cavity, axillary region, temporal artery, and skin surface, such as the forehead, abdomen, and axilla. True core body temperature is assessed in the rectum, tympanic membrane, pulmonary artery, esophagus, and urinary bladder.
Oral: When assessing oral temperature, the thermometer tip should be placed under the tongue in the posterior sublingual pocket. It offers accurate readings and can be...
Oral: When assessing oral temperature, the thermometer tip should be placed under the tongue in the posterior sublingual pocket. It offers accurate readings and can be...
What is Climate?
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
Absolute and Local Extreme Values
The highest and lowest values of a function, relative to a reference axis, are known as extreme values. These include absolute maximum and absolute minimum values, which represent the highest and lowest points the function reaches across its entire domain. Within a restricted portion of the function, the highest and lowest values are referred to as local maximum and local minimum values, respectively.Periodic functions, such as sine and cosine, show extreme values at infinitely many points due...


