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グリーンランドの主要な出口氷河からの将来の海面上昇は,温暖化が進む気候の中で起こります
Faezeh M Nick1, Andreas Vieli, Morten Langer Andersen
1Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium. faezeh.nick@unis.no
Nature
|May 10, 2013
まとめ
グリーンランドの氷床の氷河は,氷の排出量の増加によって海面上昇 (SLR) に寄与する. 新しいモデルでは,ダイナミックな氷の減少によって引き起こされる4つの主要な氷河から2200年までに19-30mmSLRを投影しています.
科学分野:
- 氷河学 氷河学とは
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 海面上昇に関する研究
背景:
- グリーンランドの氷床は,表面の融解と海洋の排出により,氷の減少が加速しています.
- 氷河のダイナミクスは,将来の海面上昇を予測するために重要であるが,依然として十分に理解されていない.
研究 の 目的:
- ダイナミックな海洋ターミナルを持つ新しい氷河流動モデルを開発し,適用する.
- 様々な温暖化シナリオの下で,グリーンランドの主要な出口氷河からの将来の海面上昇貢献を定量化するために.
主な方法:
- 完全にダイナミックな海洋終点氷河流動モデルを使用した.
- グリーンランドの氷床の22%を排水する4つの主要な海洋終結出口氷河の行動をシミュレートしました.
- 温暖化シナリオの中間範囲 (2.8°C 2100年までに) と極端 (4.5°C 2100年までに) から適用された大気および海洋強制.
主要な成果:
- 2200年までに4つの氷河から19〜30mmの海面上昇 (SLR) が予測されている.
- ダイナミックな氷の減少がSLR貢献の主な要因 (80%) として特定され,過度な深度を越えたエピソード的な撤退に関連しています.
- 初期の増加後に比較的安定したダイナミックな損失が観察され,SLRへの個々の氷河の寄与量は0.01~0.06mm/年であった.
結論:
- 開発されたモデルは,海洋を終わらせる出口氷河のダイナミックな行動に関する重要な洞察を提供します.
- これらの氷河からの将来の海面上昇の貢献は重要ですが,以前のいくつかの推定値よりも潜在的に低い可能性があります.
- 温暖化シナリオの増加は,氷の損失と海面上昇への貢献が著しく増加すると予測されています.
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