2020年までに冠動脈疾患による死亡率を減らすための選択肢を定量化する
Mark D Huffman1, Donald M Lloyd-Jones, Hongyan Ning
1Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Department of Preventive Medicine, 680 N Lake Shore Drive, Suite 1400, Chicago, IL 60611, USA. m-huffman@northwestern.edu
Circulation
|May 11, 2013
まとめ
心血管の健康を改善することで,2020年までに冠動脈疾患 (CHD) による死亡の24~30%を防ぐことができる. コレステロールや血圧などの指標に焦点を当てることは重要なことですが,肥満や糖尿病の増加はリスクをもたらします.
科学分野:
- 公共衛生は公衆衛生である.
- エピデミオロジー エピデミオロジー
- 心血管疾患に関する研究
背景:
- アメリカ心臓協会 (AHA) は,米国の心臓血管の健康を20%改善するという2020年の目標を設定しました.
- この研究は,冠動脈性心疾患 (CHD) 死亡率の潜在的減少を推定し,この目標を達成することを目的とした.
研究 の 目的:
- 2020年までに冠動脈疾患 (CHD) 死亡率の潜在的減少を推定する.
- 心血管健康指標の改善が,心血管疾患の死亡率に与える影響をモデル化するため.
主な方法:
- 40,373人の成人を対象とした国家健康栄養調査 (NHANES) のデータ (1988-2010年) を利用した.
- 6つの心血管健康指標の定量化傾向:コレステロール,血圧,運動不足,喫煙,糖尿病,肥満.
- IMPACT CHDモデルを用いて,異なるシナリオで2020年までのCHD死亡率を予測した.
主要な成果:
- 介入がなければ,CHDによる死亡率は12%増加し,2020年には約48万人に達すると予測されていた.
- すべての6つの指標の20%の改善は,CHDによる死亡を24%減らせ,36万5000人に減少させることができる.
- 糖尿病と肥満の増加を含む最近の傾向が継続すると,心臓病による死亡率が30%減少し (335,000人),他の指標の改善は不良な傾向によって相殺される可能性がある.
結論:
- 心血管健康指標の20%の改善を達成すると,2020年に予測されるCHD死亡の24%を防ぐことができます.
- 肥満と糖尿病の継続的なマイナスの傾向は,潜在的な死亡率の減少を大幅に相殺します.
- モデリングは,公衆衛生政策や心血管疾患の予防のための介入を伝えるための貴重なツールです.
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