気候変動下の種の未来:回復力か衰退か?

Craig Moritz¹, Rosa Agudo

¹Research School of Biology and Centre for Biodiversity Analysis, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. gekkojessie@gmail.com

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|August 3, 2013

まとめ

気候変動は生態系に影響を及ぼし,種の脆弱性に影響を与えます. 過去の気候現象は種が存続することを示しましたが,将来の予測は,有意な範囲の減少と絶滅のリスクを示しています.

科学分野:

生態学と進化生物学について
気候変動科学気候変動科学

背景:

生態系は,気候変動によるストレスが増加し,種の生存に影響を及ぼしています.
過去の気候変動イベントは,将来の絶滅の予測と対照的に,種の持続性を示しています.
種は,気候変動に対する変化の反応を示し,変化した範囲と現象型が観察されています.

研究の目的:

気候変動に対する種の脆弱性の程度を調査する.
種の衰退と回復力の近接的な原因を理解するために.
最近の気候に関連した減少の例を用いて,現在の保全管理戦略を導き出す.

主な方法:

過去の気候変動が種に及ぼす影響に関する化石記録の分析.
現在の気候変動の影響予測と予測のレビュー.
気候関連種の減少に関する最近のケーススタディの検討.

主要な成果:

気候変動に対する種の反応は,非常に変動します.
種の減少と回復力の正確な原動力は不明である.
観察された種の変化には,範囲の移転と現象型の変化が含まれます.

結論:

気候変動に対する種の脆弱性を理解することは,保全のために極めて重要です.
気候変動による減少の最近の例は,管理のための洞察を提供します.
種の回復力と減少のメカニズムを解明するためにさらなる研究が必要である.

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