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最近の地球温暖化の中断は,赤道太平洋の表面冷却と結びついています
1Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive MC 206, La Jolla, California 92093-0206, USA.
Nature
|September 3, 2013
まとめ
気候の自然的な変動,特に太平洋の10年間の冷却により,この世紀の地球温暖化は一時停止した. この発見は,気候モデルと観測を調和させ,長期の温暖化傾向が続くことを示しています.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 大気科学 大気科学
- 海洋学 海洋学とは
背景:
- 温室効果ガスの濃度の上昇は,伝統的に地球温暖化と相関しています.
- 21世紀に観測された地球平均気温上昇の停滞は,既存の気候モデルに異議を唱える.
- この温暖化休憩の定量化メカニズムは,正確な気候感受性推定に不可欠です.
研究 の 目的:
- 気候シミュレーションを,最近の休憩期間の観測された地球温暖化値と調和させるため.
- 温暖化の一時停止に自然気象変動の寄与を特定し,定量化する.
- 気候の感受性の観測による推定を改善する.
主な方法:
- 気候モデル内で,中から東の熱帯太平洋における観測された海面温度 (SST) を規定する.
- SSTデータと並行して radiative forcing を組み込みました.
- 1970年から2012年までの年間地球平均気温に対してモデルの性能を検証した.
主要な成果:
- 熱帯太平洋のSST冷却の会計は,観測された地球温度のモデルシミュレーションを調整した (r = 0.97).
- このモデルは,ウォーカーの循環が強まり,地域が冷却され,干ばつが発生するなど,主要な休憩の特徴を正確に再現した.
- この中断は,自然気候の変動の中で10年に一度のラニーニャのような冷却イベントとして特定されました.
結論:
- 21世紀の地球温暖化休止は,主に自然で,十年規模の海洋-大気相互作用によって引き起こされています.
- 熱帯太平洋の海面温度変動は,短期的な世界的な気温変動の重要な要因です.
- ハイアットイベントにもかかわらず,温室効果ガスの排出による長期的な温暖化傾向は継続すると予想されています.
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