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Coronary Artery Disease IV: Preventive Measures
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気候が最近の変動から脱却する予測されたタイミング
Camilo Mora1, Abby G Frazier, Ryan J Longman
1Department of Geography, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawai'i 96822, USA. cmora@hawaii.edu
Nature
|October 11, 2013
まとめ
気候変動は,21世紀半ばまでに前例のない状況をもたらすことになる. この研究は,将来の気候が歴史的な記録を超えると追跡するためのインデックスを導入し,排出削減の緊急性を強調しています.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 環境科学 環境科学
- エコロジー エコロジー エコロジー
背景:
- 現代の気候変動は,生態学的および社会的混乱を引き起こします.
- 気候の変化のタイミングは,歴史的な類似度を超えて,非常に重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 予測される地元の気候が歴史的変動を超えて変化する年を定量化する新しいインデックスを導入する.
- 異なる温室効果ガス排出シナリオの下でこれらのシフトを分析する.
主な方法:
- 1860年から2005年までの歴史的な気候データを活用した.
- 前例のない気候条件の年を決定するためのインデックスを開発しました.
- 安定化および通常の排出シナリオの下での予測される将来の気候状態.
主要な成果:
- 前例のない地表近くの気温の世界の平均年は,2069年 (安定化) と,2047年 (通常通り) のシナリオです.
- 前例のない気候は,熱帯地域や低所得国で最も早く出現すると予測されています.
- 調査結果は,世界の生物多様性の脆弱性と,政府による対応能力の限界を強調しています.
結論:
- 潜在的に有害な気候を防ぐために,温室効果ガス排出量の緊急緩和が必要である.
- この調査結果は,生物多様性と社会的安定に対する直接的な脅威を強調しています.
- 熱帯地域や低所得国での早期発生は,気候変動の影響における世界的な不平等を強調しています.
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