エルニーニョと関連した降雨の変動性に関する堅実な21世紀の予測
Scott Power1, François Delage, Christine Chung
1Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, Melbourne, Victoria, 3008, Australia.
Nature
|October 15, 2013
まとめ
将来の気候変動は,エルニニョ-南方振動 (ENSO) の影響を変化させるだろう. 予測によると,太平洋西部ではエルニーニョによる乾燥が激化し,地球温暖化による太平洋中部/東部の赤道地域では降雨量が増加している.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 大気科学 大気科学
- 海洋学 海洋学とは
背景:
- エルニーニョ・サザン振動 (ENSO) は,世界の天気,農業,生態系に大きく影響している.
- 将来の気候変動はENSOの特徴と影響を変化させるかもしれないが,コンセンサスは欠けている.
研究 の 目的:
- 将来の気候シナリオの下でENSOの空間的な変動パターンの予測された変化を調査する.
- ENSOの影響におけるこれらの予測された変化の主な要因を決定する.
主な方法:
- 最近の2世代の気候モデルの分析.
- CO2および他の放射性活性ガスのために,4つの異なるシナリオを使用しました.
- 特定の実験のために大気一般循環モデルを使用した.
主要な成果:
- ENSOによる表面温度と降水パターンの強固な予測変化が特定されました.
- 21世紀半ばから後半までに,エルニーニョは西太平洋の乾燥を強め,中央/東部赤道太平洋の降雨量を増やすと予測されています.
- 予想される降水の変化は,主にENSOの振幅の変動ではなく,地球温暖化への非線形反応によって引き起こされます.
結論:
- ENSOの主要な特徴の予測される変化は,これまで理解していたよりも明確です.
- 地球温暖化は,ENSOの将来の降雨への影響を決定する主要な要因です.
- ENSOは,年間気候変動の変動の主な要因であり続けるだろう.
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