トロピカルサイクロンの位置の極方向への移動は,最大強度の熱帯サイクロンです
James P Kossin1, Kerry A Emanuel2, Gabriel A Vecchi3
1NOAA National Climatic Data Center, University of Wisconsin/CIMSS, 1225 West Dayton Street, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA.
Nature
|May 16, 2014
まとめ
熱帯サイクロンは,10年に約1度の緯度で極に向かって移動しています. この傾向は,環境の変化と熱帯の拡大に関連しています.
科学分野:
- 気候学 気候学
- 気象学 気象学 気象学
- 環境科学 環境科学
背景:
- グローバルな歴史的な熱帯サイクロンデータは時間的な矛盾を示しており,傾向分析への信頼を制限しています.
- 熱帯サイクロン活動と環境変化の間の関連性を評価することは,データの不確実性のために困難です.
研究 の 目的:
- 歴史的なデータの制限にもかかわらず,熱帯サイクロン活動の傾向を特定する.
- トロピカルサイクロンの強度の極に向かっての移動を調査する.
主な方法:
- トロピカルサイクロンの強度に関するメトリックに焦点を当てて,過去のデータの不確実性に対してあまり敏感ではない.
- 過去30年の世界の歴史的データを分析して,極地への移住の傾向を調べた.
主要な成果:
- 熱帯サイクロンの生涯最大強度の平均緯度の統計的に有意な極方向移動が特定されました.
- 両半球で極点への傾向が観測された (53 km/decade 北半球,62 km/decade 南半球).
- 10年あたり約1度の緯度で,熱帯から離れた地球全体の平均的な移住が検出され,熱帯の拡大推定値と一致しました.
結論:
- 観測された熱帯サイクロンの極に向かっての移動は,統計的に有意であり,データアーティファクトである可能性は低い.
- この移動は,垂直風切断や潜在的な強度などの環境要因の変化に関連しています.
- この傾向は,熱帯の拡大に人類が寄与した要因と妥当に結びつく.
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