温室効果の温暖化によるインド洋の極端な二極体現象の頻度増加
Wenju Cai1, Agus Santoso2, Guojian Wang3
11] CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195 Australia [2] Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003 China.
Nature
|June 13, 2014
まとめ
極端なインド洋二極体 (IOD) イベントは,温室効果の温暖化により,今世紀には3倍に増加します. この気候パターンの変化は,インド洋地域の極端な天候現象を増加させるだろう.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学とは
- 大気科学 大気科学
背景:
- インド洋二極 (IOD) は,数百万人に影響を与える気候変動の主要な原動力です.
- 陽性なIODイベントは,東部の海面温度が冷たく,西部の海面温度が暖かくなり,天気パターンに影響を与えます.
- 極端なポジティブなIOD (pIOD) イベントは,歴史的に深刻な干ばつや洪水を引き起こしてきました.
研究 の 目的:
- 温室効果温暖化が極度のポジティブなIODイベントの頻度に与える影響を調査する.
- 将来の気候シナリオの下でのpIODイベントの変化を駆動する根本的なメカニズムを理解する.
主な方法:
- 高い温室効果ガス排出シナリオ (RCP 8.5) の下では,気候モデルのアンサンブルを使用した.
- 海面温度,風のパターン,海流の変化を分析した.
- 予測されたpIODイベントの頻度を,20世紀の歴史データと比較した.
主要な成果:
- 21世紀には,極端なpIODの発生頻度がほぼ3倍に増加すると予測されています (20世紀には17.3年に1回,6.3年に1回).
- 弱い赤道西風と東向きの海流を含む平均状態の変化を特定しました.
- インド洋の東方赤道よりも西部で観測されたより速い温暖化は,より頻繁な風と流れの逆転を促進します.
結論:
- 温室効果の温暖化は,極端な陽性IODイベントの頻度を大幅に増加させると予測されています.
- これらの変化は,インド洋の平均気象状態の変化によって引き起こされています.
- 極端なpIOD現象の頻度の増加は,影響を受けた地域における極端な気候および天候現象の増加を示唆しています.
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