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イギリスにおける牛の結核の拡散と制御のダイナミックなモデル

Ellen Brooks-Pollock¹, Gareth O Roberts², Matt J Keeling³

¹1] Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK [2] WIDER Centre, Mathematics Institute and School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.

|July 11, 2014

まとめ

イギリスの牛の牛結核 (TB) は複雑で,動物の移動や環境要因を含む複数の感染経路があります. この持続的な病気を効果的に管理するには,集中的な制御戦略が必要です.

科学分野:

獣医学流行病学獣医学流行病学とは
病気モデリング
感染症のダイナミクス

背景:

牛の結核 (TB) は,英国の牛産業界にとって大きな経済的,政治的課題となっています.
診断テストの感度が低いため,結核の感染経路の理解が難しくなります.
結核の予防のためにバードジーの殺戮について,公的・政治的議論が続いている.

研究の目的:

イギリスにおける牛の結核伝播のダイナミックな空間モデルを開発する.
農場内および農場間での伝播経路の役割を分析する.
様々な疾病管理戦略の有効性を評価する.

主な方法:

農場内および農場間での伝播を統合したダイナミックストキャスティック空間モデル.
ストキャスティック感染,環境維持,検査プロトコルの組み込み.
牛の追跡システムからの牛の移動データを,農場間の伝播のために利用する.

主要な成果:

このモデルは,牛の結核の観測された年間増加と空間的広がりを正確に再現しています.
分析によると,ほとんどの新規症例は,牛の移動,環境再感染,診断検査の無感性など,複数の感染経路が関係している.
テストされた少数の予防対策は,感染増加を逆転させる可能性があることを示している.

結論:

全群の断絶や強化された国家検査などの集中的な制御戦略が最も効果的です.
単一の伝播経路を対象とした制御措置は,非常に有効である可能性は低い.
複数の感染経路を理解することは,牛の結核の効果的な管理に不可欠です.

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