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低生育率は本当に問題なのか? 人口の高齢化,依存,消費
1Department of Demography and Department of Economics, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. rlee@demog.berkeley.edu amason@hawaii.edu.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|October 11, 2014
まとめ
寿命の延長と低出生率による人口老化は,課題を提示しています. 分析によると,適度な低出生率と人口減少は,政府予算への影響にもかかわらず,より広範な物質的な生活水準を好むことを示しています.
科学分野:
- デモグラフィー デモグラフィー 人口統計
- 経済学 経済学
- 公共政策 公共政策 公共政策
背景:
- 世界の人口の高齢化が加速しているのは,長寿が増加し,代用率以下の生育率によるものです.
- 人口の高齢化が公的財政や生活水準に及ぼす悪影響について懸念がある.
- 国家移転口座 (NTA) のデータは,世代間の資源フローを分析するための枠組みを提供します.
研究 の 目的:
- 異なる生育率が政府予算や生活水準に与える影響を分析する.
- 人口の変化を考慮して,経済福祉のための最適な生育率を決定する.
- 人口の高齢化に対処する政策立案者に対して,証拠に基づいた洞察を提供すること.
主な方法:
- 40カ国の全国送金口座 (NTA) データを活用した.
- 異なる生育率が年齢構造,政府財政,一人当たりの消費に与える影響をモデル化した.
- 成長する労働力に対する資本コストを分析に組み込んだ.
主要な成果:
- 生育率を大幅に上回る出生率 (女性1人当たり2.1人) は,政府予算に利益をもたらします.
- 代替レベルに近い生育率は,家族と政府の影響を考慮すると,生活水準を最適化します.
- 代替レベル以下の生育率は,資本投資の必要性を考慮して,一人当たりの消費を最大化します.
結論:
- 低生育率は政府プログラムに挑戦し,非常に低い生育率は生活水準を低下させる一方で,適度に低い生育率と人口減少はより広範な物質的な生活水準をサポートします.
- 政策上の影響は,生育率目標に対する微妙なアプローチを提案し,財政の健康と全体的な社会福祉のバランスをとる.
- この研究は,生育率,年齢構造,経済的成果の間の複雑な関係を強調しています.
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