増加した天然ガスの使用による10年規模の気候変動への影響は限られている
Haewon McJeon1, Jae Edmonds1, Nico Bauer2
1Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, JGCRI, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA.
Nature
|October 16, 2014
まとめ
液圧破砕による世界のシェールガスの拡大は,温室効果ガスの排出量または気候強制を大幅に削減しません. 豊富な天然ガスはエネルギーシステムを変化させるかもしれないが,気候変動緩和の解決策ではない.
科学分野:
- エネルギーシステム分析 エネルギーシステム分析
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 環境経済学 環境経済学
背景:
- 水力破砕は,北米でシェールガスの生産を広く可能にしました.
- これらの技術のグローバル展開は,非伝統的なガス資源の大幅な増加につながる可能性があります.
- 豊富な天然ガスの気候への影響は議論されており,二酸化炭素 (CO2) 排出量とその全体的な温室効果ガスへの影響について異なる見解があります.
研究 の 目的:
- 非従来の天然ガス供給の増加による地球温暖化への影響を評価する.
- 豊富な天然ガスが,温室効果ガスの排出量と気候強制を効果的に削減できるかどうかを評価する.
- 将来のエネルギー・経済・気候システムにおける天然ガスの役割を理解する.
主な方法:
- 最先端の5つの統合評価モデル (IAM) を利用しました.
- 市場主導による世界的な非常規天然ガス供給の増加のシナリオをシミュレートした.
- 2050年までに天然ガス消費量,CO2排出量,気候フォッシングの予測変化を分析した.
主要な成果:
- 予測される天然ガス消費量は2050年までに最大170%増加する.
- 観測されたCO2排出量への影響は最小限であり,変動は-2%から+11%の範囲にある.
- モデルの大多数は,ガス使用の増加による気候強制のわずかな増加 (0.3%から7%) を示した.
結論:
- 世界の非常規天然ガスの市場主導の増加は,温室効果ガスの排出量または気候強制を顕著に削減しません.
- 豊富なガスはエネルギーシステムを変化させることができるが,気候変動緩和政策の代わりにはならない.
- エネルギー・経済・気候システムの統合的評価は,エネルギー移行の完全な影響を理解するために不可欠です.
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