アメリカ合衆国における竜巻発生の変動性の増加

Harold E Brooks¹, Gregory W Carbin², Patrick T Marsh²

¹National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK 73072, USA. harold.brooks@noaa.gov.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|October 18, 2014

まとめ

気候変動は,米国における竜巻発生に影響を及ぼしている. 年間の大規模な竜巻の数は変わらないが,1970年代以降,その変動性は増加し,竜巻の季節のタイミングが変化した.

科学分野:

大気科学大気科学
気候学気候学
気象学気象学気象学

背景:

竜巻発生に対する気候変動の影響に対する公衆と科学者の関心は高い.
歴史的な竜巻の報告の変化は,傾向の分析を複雑にします.
竜巻の変動性を理解することは,気候変動の影響評価に不可欠です.

研究の目的:

気候変動が米国における竜巻発生に及ぼす影響を調査する.
竜巻の頻度と変動の動向を分析し,変化を報告するための会計処理を行う.
竜巻の季節性の変化が気候変動と関連しているかどうかを判断する.

主な方法:

1970年代以降の米国における歴史的な竜巻データの分析.
最も弱い竜巻 (EF0およびEF1) を除外して,重要なイベントに焦点を当てます.
年間および毎月の竜巻の発生と変動の統計的調査.

主要な成果:

大規模な竜巻の年間平均数は,比較的一定のままである.
竜巻の発生の変動性は,1970年代以降大幅に増加しています.
1年に発生する竜巻日数の減少と,複数の竜巻が発生する日の増加が,この変動性を引き起こしています.

結論:

気候変動が竜巻の発生頻度だけでなく,竜巻の発生特性にも影響を及ぼしている可能性があります.
竜巻の変動性の増加は,厳しい天候に有利な大気条件の変化を示唆しています.
竜巻の季節の始まりの変化が観察され,潜在的により広範な気候変動と関連しています.

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