20世紀における海面上昇の確率的再分析
Carling C Hay1,2, Eric Morrow1,2, Robert E Kopp2,3
1Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA.
Nature
|January 29, 2015
まとめ
20世紀の世界平均海面上昇 (GMSL) は年間1.2mmで,海面予算を締め切りました. 1990年以降のGMSL上昇は,年間3.0mmまで加速し,将来の海面上昇予測に影響を与えました.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学とは
- 氷河学 氷河学とは
背景:
- 世界平均海面上昇 (GMSL) を推定することは,気候変動の影響を理解するために極めて重要です.
- 潮位計データを用いた以前の研究では,20世紀におけるGMSLの上昇が1.6~1.9mm/年であると推定された.
- 推定GMSLの上昇と1990年以前のGMSLの付与額との間には不一致があった.
研究 の 目的:
- * 20世紀のGMSL上昇を確率論的手法を使って再評価する.
- * 潮位計データを物理モデルと統合することで,海平面予算を調整する.
- * 20世紀後半から21世紀初頭にかけてのGMSL上昇の加速を評価する.
主な方法:
- * 潮位計の記録の確率分析. 潮位計の記録の確率分析. 潮位計の記録の確率分析. 潮位計の記録の確率分析. 潮位計の記録の確率分析. 潮位計の記録の確率分析.
- * 潮位計データと物理に基づいた,モデルから派生した海面変化の幾何学を統合する.
- * 改訂されたGMSL推定値と,氷河/氷床の質量損失と海洋熱膨張による貢献を比較した.
主要な成果:
- *GMSLは1901年から1990年にかけて年間1.2±0.2mmのペースで上昇した.
- * この改訂率は,20世紀の海平面予算を成功裏に締めくくった.
- *GMSLの上昇は1993年から2010年の間に年間3.0±0.7mmまで加速した.
結論:
- *20世紀のGMSL上昇の推定値は下方修正されています.
- * 改訂率は,観測データと気候モデルの貢献を調整したものです.
- *海面上昇の加速は確認されており,以前考えられていたよりも大きく,将来の予測に影響を与える可能性があります.
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