気候変動. 気候変動. 大西洋と太平洋の数十年にわたる振動と北半球の気温
Byron A Steinman1, Michael E Mann2, Sonya K Miller2
1Large Lakes Observatory and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Minnesota Duluth, Duluth, MN, USA. bsteinma@d.umn.edu.
まとめ
地球温暖化は地球温暖化です.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 地球システム科学 地球システム科学
- 大気科学 大気科学
背景:
- 最近の地球温暖化の減速は,気候モデルの信頼性について疑問を投げかけています.
- 減速が内部変動によるものなのか,外部からの強制によるものなのかについては議論が続いている.
- 気候システムの内部的な変動は,地球全体の気温の動向に影響を与える可能性があります.
研究 の 目的:
- 最近の地球温暖化の減速の原因を調査する.
- 温度変動における大西洋多年期振動 (AMO) と太平洋多年期振動 (PMO) の役割を定量化する.
- 気候モデル予測の信頼性を評価する.
主な方法:
- 気候観測とモデルシミュレーションを組み合わせた半経験的アプローチを適用しました.
- 大西洋と太平洋をベースとする内部マルチデケダル変動 (AMOとPMO) の推定.
- 北半球の平均気温に対するAMOとPMOの寄与を分析した.
主要な成果:
- AMOとPMOは,北半球の温度における内部変動の重要な部分を説明する.
- AMOの控えめな正のピークとネガティブな傾向のPMOが観察されました.
- AMOとPMOの競争が,最近の温暖化の減速や"偽の一時停止"の原因になった可能性が高い.
結論:
- 内部の多十年間の変動,特にAMOとPMOは,世界の気温の動向に大きな影響を与える.
- 最近の温暖化の減速は,主に自然の気候変動の変動に起因しています.
- 発見は,気候予測における内部変動を考慮する重要性を強調しています.
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