2000年から2010年までのCO2による表面放射強制の観測的決定
D R Feldman1, W D Collins2, P J Gero3
1Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth Sciences Division, 1 Cyclotron Road, MS 74R-316C, Berkeley, California 94720, USA.
Nature
|March 4, 2015
まとめ
観測データは,大気中の二酸化炭素 (CO2) レベルが上昇すると,表面の放射性強制が直接増加することを確認しています. この経験的証拠は,温室効果の予測を検証し,CO2を定量化する.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 大気物理学 大気物理学
- 地球システム科学 地球システム科学
背景:
- 温室効果ガスの気候への影響は,通常,放射性強制によって評価され,工業化以前の大気ガス濃度と現在の大気ガス濃度を比較します.
- 理論的モデルでは,1750年以降のCO2増加により,年間平均1.82 ± 0.19 Wm−2の放射力強引が予測されています.
- 大気中のCO2の増加による放射性影響に関する直接的な観測証拠は,広範なモデリングにもかかわらず,依然として限られています.
研究 の 目的:
- 晴れた天空のCO2表面の放射力強制に関する観察に基づく証拠を提示する.
- この強制は,2000年から2010年の間に観測された大気中のCO2濃度の増加に直接帰結する.
- 温室効果の理論的予測に経験的検証を提供すること.
主な方法:
- 利用された大気発射放射干渉計 (AERI) のスペクトルと補助的な測定.
- 徹底的に裏付けられた放射性移転計算を用いた.
- アラスカの南のグレート・プレインズと北の斜面の2つの異なる場所からのデータを分析しました.
主要な成果:
- 二酸化炭素の表面放射力強制の統計的に有意な傾向が検出され,両地点で10年あたり0.2Wm−2であった.
- これらの傾向に対する定量化不確実性は,10年あたり±0.06Wm−2 (SGP) と10年あたり±0.07Wm−2 (アラスカ) である.
- 観測された季節的な範囲は0.10.2 W m−2で,これは長波放射の降下傾向の約10%を表しています.
結論:
- この研究は,大気中のCO2の増加による放射性影響の直接的な観察的証拠を提供します.
- 結果は,人類による排出によって引き起こされる大気温室効果の理論的予測を裏付けている.
- 経験的なデータは,生物学的サイクルの影響によるCO2濃度の上昇が,表面エネルギーバランスにどのように影響するかを示しています.
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