高いおよび低い環境温度に起因する死亡リスク:多国間観察研究
Antonio Gasparrini1, Yuming Guo2, Masahiro Hashizume3
1Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|May 25, 2015
まとめ
寒い天候は,暑さよりも多くの早期死亡を引き起こします. 温和で最適でない気温は,極端な天候現象よりも死亡率の負担に大きく貢献し,公衆衛生計画に影響を与えます.
科学分野:
- 環境疫学環境疫学について
- 公衆衛生は公衆衛生である.
背景:
- 以前の研究では,特定の国の熱や寒さによる死亡率を推定した.
- さまざまな気候における全温度範囲をカバーする体系的な評価は存在しなかった.
研究 の 目的:
- 非最適の環境温度による全死亡負担を定量化する.
- 暑さ,寒さ,適度,極端な気温の相対的な貢献を評価する.
主な方法:
- 384の場所 (1985-2012) で発生した74,225,200件の死亡を分析した.
- タイムシリーズのポアソンモデルと分散ラグの非線形モデルを使用した.
- 多変量メタレグレッションを用いて,国別要因を考慮した結果のプール.
主要な成果:
- 不適正な気温は,全死亡率の7.71%を占めた.
- 寒い気温は,暑さ (0.42%) よりもかなり多くの死亡 (7.29%) を引き起こしました.
- 極端な気温 (冷や熱) が死亡率の0.86%の原因となった.
結論:
- 寒い天候は,気温に関連する死亡率の主な要因である.
- 温和で非最適の気温は,極端な気温よりも大きなリスクをもたらす.
- 発見は,公衆衛生の介入と気候変動の影響評価にインパクトを与える.
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