大気循環パターンの変化が極端な気温の傾向に与える影響
Daniel E Horton1, Nathaniel C Johnson2, Deepti Singh3
11] Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA [2] Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA.
Nature
|June 26, 2015
まとめ
大気循環パターンの変化は,極端な天候現象と関連しています. この研究は,循環の重要な傾向を特定し,北半球で観測されたいくつかの極端な温度を説明します.
科学分野:
- 大気科学 大気科学
- 気候学 気候学
- 気象学 気象学 気象学
背景:
- 地表の天候は,大気循環によって影響を受けます.
- 大気循環の長期的変化に関する観測された証拠は不確定である.
- 極端な天候現象は増加しており,それを循環の変化と結びつける仮説がある.
研究 の 目的:
- 大気循環パターンの統計的に有意な傾向を特定する.
- これらの傾向が,表面温度極度の観測された変化を説明するかどうかを判断する.
- 北半球の中緯度における極端な温度に対する循環の変化の影響を調査する.
主な方法:
- 自己組織化マップ (SOM) クラスター分析は,循環パターンを検出するために使用されました.
- 分析は,衛星観測時代 (1979年−2013年) と最近の時期 (1990年−2013年) を対象とした.
- 循環パターンの傾向は,表面温度極度の傾向と相関していた.
主要な成果:
- 大気循環パターンの統計的に有意な傾向は,いくつかの中緯度の地域で特定されました.
- 増加するアンチサイクロン循環傾向は,ユーラシアと北米 (夏/秋) の極端な高温と相関しています.
- 北向きの流れの増加傾向は,中央アジア (冬) の極端な寒さと相関しています.
結論:
- 観測された極端な気温の変化は,地域循環パターンの傾向によって部分的に説明されます.
- 熱力学が役割を果たしている一方で,循環頻度,持続性,および持続時間の変化は,極端な温度のリスクも変化させます.
- この研究は,大気循環の変化と極端な温度現象の間の関連性に関する証拠を提供します.
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