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過去千年の北大西洋振動の再構築をモデルでテストした

Pablo Ortega¹, Flavio Lehner², Didier Swingedouw³

¹LSCE/IPSL, UMR 8212 (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France.

|July 3, 2015

まとめ

この研究は,北大西洋振動 (NAO) の新しい千年間の再構築を提示し,中世の間に持続的な陽性NAOの以前の発見に異議を唱えます. 新しい再構築は,13世紀と14世紀の NAO ポジティブフェーズが支配的であり,火山噴火との関連を示しています.

科学分野:

古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは
大気科学大気科学
気候のダイナミクス

背景:

北大西洋振動 (NAO) は北半球の気候に大きな影響を及ぼし,農業や水資源管理などの重要なセクターに影響を与えます.
長期のNAOの変動性を評価することは,気候の予測性を理解するために不可欠ですが,過去の再構築は議論されています.
以前の研究では,中世の間に持続的な陽性NAOが,より暖かいヨーロッパの条件と関連していると示唆されていたが,これは異議を唱えている.

研究の目的:

過去千年にわたる北大西洋振動 (NAO) のより堅牢で,毎年解決される再構築を開発する.
特に中世期における,NAOの低周波の変動性を再評価する.
火山噴火と,その後のNAO段階との関係を調査する.

主な方法:

アトランティック地域から毎年解決される48のプロキシレコードをまとめました.
NAO再構築のための多変数回帰モデルの集合体の開発.
過去千年の6つの気候シミュレーションに対する再構築の検証.

主要な成果:

新しいNAO再構築は,以前のバイプロキシインデックスを上回る.
中世の間,持続的なポジティブなNAO条件は見つかりませんでした.
NAOのポジティブな段階は13世紀と14世紀に支配的であった.
大規模な火山噴火の2年後,NAOの陽性反応が観察されました.

結論:

中世の時期は,北大西洋振動 (NAO) の条件が持続的に正しかったことはなかった.
13世紀と14世紀は, NAOのポジティブな支配的な相によって特徴づけられました.
火山の噴火は,2年以内にNAOのポジティブフェーズが続き,モデルと観測データと一致します.

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