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温度の経済生産に対する全体的な非線形影響
Marshall Burke1,2, Solomon M Hsiang3,4, Edward Miguel4,5
1Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, California 94305, USA.
Nature
|October 28, 2015
まとめ
経済生産性は非線形であり,すべての国の気温は13°Cでピークに達しています. 温暖化が緩和されなければ 2100年までに世界の所得は23%減少し 格差が広がるでしょう
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 経済学
- 社会学
背景:
- 気候条件は人間社会に大きな影響を与えるが,経済活動への影響は一貫していない.
- 労働力や作物などの小規模経済要因は 非線形的な温度反応を示し,富裕国におけるマクロ経済の総生産性とは対照的です.
- 貧しい国々は 温度に対して線形的な反応を示し 微小観測とマクロ観測の衝突を引き起こします
研究 の 目的:
- 温度に対するマイクロ経済とマクロ経済の対立を統合する.
- 人間と自然のシステムにおける富の役割を理解する.
- 気候変動が世界経済に及ぼす影響を予測する.
主な方法:
- 各国のマクロ経済生産性データを分析し,マクロスケールでの温度非線形性を考慮した.
- 検討された農業と非農業の経済活動
- 1960年以降の関係の一貫性と,そのグローバルな汎用性を評価した.
主要な成果:
- 経済生産性は非線形であり,すべての国の年間平均気温は13°Cでピークに達しています.
- 高温で生産性が著しく低下し 富裕国も貧困国も影響を受ける
- 温度の経済的な関係は1960年以来一貫しています.
結論:
- すべての地域の経済活動は,地球規模の気候と結びついています.
- 過去の適応傾向を想定すると 2100年までに世界の平均所得が23%減少し 格差が増加する可能性があります
- 気候変動による経済的損失は,以前見積もられたものより大きい可能性があり,将来の気候政策にも影響を及ぼします.
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