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携帯電話のメタデータから貧困と富の予測
Joshua Blumenstock1, Gabriel Cadamuro2, Robert On3
1Information School, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. joshblum@uw.edu.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|November 28, 2015
まとめ
携帯電話のデータは 発展途上国の社会経済的地位や 富の分布を推定できます これは,現地化された人口プロファイルのための伝統的な調査に費用対効果の高い代替案を提供します.
科学分野:
- 人口統計
- 社会学
- データサイエンス
背景:
- 正確な人口データは社会・経済政策にとって極めて重要です.
- 開発途上国では,人口統計のプロファイリングを行うのに十分なビッグデータがないことが多い.
- 伝統的な国勢調査と調査は費用がかかり,頻度も少ない.
研究 の 目的:
- 携帯電話の使用データから 個人の社会経済的地位を推測できるかどうかを判断する.
- 携帯電話データを用いて国家や地域の富の分布を再構築する可能性を評価する.
- 資源の限られた環境で地域的な人口統計データ収集のための費用対効果の高い方法を提供すること.
主な方法:
- 過去の携帯電話使用データを分析して 社会経済指標との相関を特定します
- 携帯電話の行動から個人の社会経済状態を推測する予測モデルを開発する.
- 富と資産の分布を再構築するために個々の予測を集約する.
主要な成果:
- 携帯電話の使用履歴は 社会的経済的地位を正確に予測します
- 集約された個々の予測は 国家の富の分布を成功裏に再構築します
- 資産の分布は,マイクロ地域レベル (少数家庭) でさえも推論できます.
結論:
- 携帯電話のデータは 社会経済的な地位を推論するための 新しく強力なツールです
- このアプローチは,データ不足の地域における 人口プロファイルのスケーラブルで手頃な方法を提供します.
- 開発途上国における社会研究と政策に 重要な意味を持ちます
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