"大西洋と太平洋の多十年振動と北半球の気温"に関するコメント
S Kravtsov1, M G Wyatt2, J A Curry3
1Department of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Science group, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Post Office Box 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA. kravtsov@uwm.edu.
まとめ
マルチモデル・アンサンブル・メディアは,公正な気候反応の見積もりを提供しない場合があります. リスケーリング方法には欠陥があり,残留の変動は内部騒音だけでなく,実際の強制的な気候反応を反映します.
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 気候モデリング
背景:
- マルチモデル・アンサンブル・メディアは,強制的な気候対応を推定するために使用されます.
- 偏りのない見積もりを提示します.
研究 の 目的:
- 気候変動への対応の見積もりを 批判的に評価する.
- 気候モデルシミュレーションにおける残留変動の性質を調査する.
主な方法:
- マルチモデルのアンサンブル・メアンのスケール変更の分析.
- 単一のモデルシミュレーションにおける残留内在の変動性の検討
主要な成果:
- 偏見のない見積もりを示す手順は欠陥がある.
- 残留の変動性は,モデルの実際の強制応答によって支配されています.
- アセンブル・メア・タイム・シリーズは,強制的な気候信号を正確に表さないかもしれません.
結論:
- 再スケールされたアンサンブル手段による偏りのない気候反応の見積もりに対する主張は異議を唱える.
- 残留変動の解釈は,気候モデル分析で再評価する必要があります.
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