過去と将来の氷河の始まりを診断するための重要な太陽照射とCO2の関係
A Ganopolski1, R Winkelmann1,2, H J Schellnhuber1,3
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.
Nature
|January 15, 2016
まとめ
世界的な二酸化炭素 (CO2) レベルと北極の夏の太陽照射は,氷河のサイクルに重大な影響を及ぼします. 現在の二酸化炭素濃度により 新しい氷河期が起こらず 氷河期が少なくとも10万年遅れたのです
科学分野:
- 古代気候学
- 気候モデリング
- 地球システム科学
背景:
- 北半球の氷床の成長は,歴史的に北極の夏の太陽照射が減り,氷河間期が終わった.
- 現在の夏の低日照は 氷河期に適した条件を示唆していますが 氷河期は迫りつつあるので 現存する理論に挑戦しています
- 氷河形成のメカニズムを理解することは 将来の気候状態を予測するのに不可欠です
研究 の 目的:
- 氷河周期を駆動する北極夏の太陽照射と地球全体の二酸化炭素 (CO2) 濃度との関係を調査する.
- 過去の8つの氷河期の始まりを 説明し 将来の氷河期の始まりを予測する
- 次の氷河期のタイミングに 人為的なCO2排出量の影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- 中間の複雑性の地球システムモデルを使用した.
- 古気候データを使った 限定モデルシミュレーション
- 気候ダイナミクスを分析するエンサンブルシミュレーションを行いました.
主要な成果:
- 過去の氷河期間の説明として,北極夏の太陽照射とCO2濃度の間の重要な関係が特定されました.
- 氷河の発生は,産業革命以前には,高ホロセンのCO2と低軌道偏心により,わずかに回避された.
- 人類の影響がなければ 現在の氷河期は 5万年続く可能性があり 氷床の伸びは最小限です
結論:
- 人為的なCO2排出量1000~1500GtCは 次の氷河期の始まりを 10万年以上遅らせます
- 地球のシステムは,極端な氷河化や脱氷を避け,安定した氷期間の状態に自然に傾いています.
- 現在の氷河期間の状態は 微妙なバランスによって 異常なほど長くなり 人間のCO2排出量によって 顕著に拡大しています
関連する概念動画
Global Climate Change
29.7K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
29.7K
Assessment of Diffusion and Perfusion
2.0K
Understanding and evaluating diffusion and perfusion is critical in assessing a patient's respiratory and circulatory health. These processes play key roles in maintaining the body's internal environment, ensuring that tissues receive adequate oxygen while waste products are efficiently removed.
The Role of Diffusion in Respiration
Diffusion is the process by which molecules move from an area of higher concentration to an area of lower concentration. In the respiratory system, this...
The Role of Diffusion in Respiration
Diffusion is the process by which molecules move from an area of higher concentration to an area of lower concentration. In the respiratory system, this...
2.0K
Calculating and Interpreting the Linear Correlation Coefficient
8.5K
The correlation coefficient, r, developed by Karl Pearson in the early 1900s, is numerical and provides a measure of strength and direction of the linear association between the independent variable, x, and the dependent variable, y. Hence, it is also known as the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient. It can be calculated using the following equation:
8.5K
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease-IV: Assessement and Diagnostic Studies
3.4K
Assessing and diagnosing Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) involves a detailed approach that includes a comprehensive review of medical history, physical examination, and a variety of diagnostic tests. This thorough evaluation is essential to ensure an accurate diagnosis and guide effective management strategies.
Medical History
Medical History
3.4K
Isothermal Processes
5.3K
A thermodynamic process that occurs at constant temperature is called an isothermal process. Heat slowly flows into the system or out of the system to maintain thermal equilibrium. Processes involving phase changes like water evaporation into steam or freezing water into ice at a constant temperature are examples of Isothermal Processes.
An ideal gas can also undergo isothermal expansion or compression.
For example, consider 1 mole of an ideal gas inside an isolated cylinder at initial volume V...
An ideal gas can also undergo isothermal expansion or compression.
For example, consider 1 mole of an ideal gas inside an isolated cylinder at initial volume V...
5.3K
What is Climate?
21.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
21.4K


