CO2循環の人類による増幅による将来の海洋ハイパーカプニア
Ben I McNeil1,2, Tristan P Sasse1,3
1Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Nature
|January 22, 2016
まとめ
二酸化炭素 (CO2) 濃度が高くなると 2100年までに10倍に増加し 海洋生物や漁業を脅かすことになります この拡大したCO2循環は予想より数十年前までに世界の漁業にリスクをもたらします
科学分野:
- 海洋学
- 海洋生物学
- 気候科学
背景:
- 海水中の二酸化炭素 (CO2) 濃度が上昇すると 海の動物の神経学,生理学,行動に悪影響を及ぼします
- オーシャン・ハイパーカプニアの正確な予測には,年間オーシャンCO2の変動を理解する必要がありますが,世界的な観測データは稀です.
研究 の 目的:
- 月間海洋二酸化炭素濃度変動のグローバルパターンを分析する.
- 大気中の二酸化炭素の上昇下での海面二酸化炭素の年間サイクルを調査する.
- 海洋の進化を予測する
主な方法:
- 月間CO2濃度の変動を特定するために,グローバル観測データを利用した.
- 海洋表面CO2の年間サイクルを分析した.
- 将来の予測のために,代表的な濃縮経路 8.5 (RCP8.5) のシナリオを使用した.
主要な成果:
- RCP8.5のシナリオでは 2100年までにいくつかの地域で海洋CO2の振動が 10倍に増加すると予測されています.
- 増幅された年間CO2サイクルにおける明確なグローバルパターンを特定した.
- 大気中のCO2の650ppmで 海洋の表面の半分に 影響を与える可能性があると予測されています
結論:
- 南部,太平洋,北大西洋の"CO2ホットスポット"が形成され,漁業が早期にハイパーカプニアを発症する危険性があります.
- 二酸化炭素の非線形増幅は,季節的な二酸化炭素の動態と,人為的な二酸化炭素貯蔵による海洋の緩衝容量減少によって引き起こされる.
- 2100年までに海域を拡大すると 漁業に深刻な影響が及ぶでしょう
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