経済学における実験実験の複製性を評価する
Colin F Camerer1, Anna Dreber2, Eskil Forsell2
1Division of Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, 1200 East California Boulevard, MC 228-77, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|March 5, 2016
まとめ
18の経済学の研究を複製すると 61%が有意な結果を示した. 平均的な複製効果の大きさは,元の66%で,経済研究における適度な複製性を示している.
科学分野:
- 経済学
- 経済学
- 科学的複製
背景:
- 科学的発見の複製可能性に関する最近の懸念
- 経済学の分野における複製性に関する経験的データの必要性
研究 の 目的:
- トップ経済学誌に掲載された経験的研究の複製性を評価する.
- 経済研究の再現性に関する定量的な証拠を提供すること.
主な方法:
- アメリカン・エコノミック・レビューとクォーターリー・ジャーナル・オブ・エコノミクス (2011年~2014年) の18件の研究を複製したものです.
- 各複製に対して,事前に定義された,一般に利用可能な分析計画を使用する.
- すべてのレプリケーションは,5%の有意度レベルでのオリジナルの効果サイズを検出するために少なくとも90%の統計力を持っていたことを保証します.
主要な成果:
- 元の方向での有意な効果は,18件のうち11件で確認された (61%).
- 成功した複製の平均効果は,最初に報告された効果の66%でした.
- 予測市場を含む追加の複製性指標は67%から78%の割合を示した.
結論:
- 経済的研究の大部分は 適度な複製性を示しています
- この発見は,経済学における科学的再現性に関する議論に,経験的証拠を寄与しています.
- この研究では,透明な分析計画と信頼性の高い研究成果を確保するための十分な統計力の重要性を強調しています.
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