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気候変動による将来の食糧生産の地球規模と地域規模の健康影響:モデル研究
Marco Springmann1, Daniel Mason-D'Croz2, Sherman Robinson2
1Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non-Communicable Disease Prevention, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|March 8, 2016
まとめ
気候変動は2050年までに世界の食生活と健康に 深刻な影響を及ぼし 死亡率を増やすでしょう 緩和戦略と公衆衛生プログラムによって 気候変動による死者の多くを 防ぐことができます
科学分野:
- 農業科学
- 気候科学
- 公衆衛生
背景:
- 気候変動は世界の農業と食糧安全保障に重大なリスクをもたらします
- 気候に起因する農業の変化によるより広範な健康への影響については,さらなる評価が必要である.
- この研究は,気候に関連する食事と体重の変化による過剰死亡率をモデル化しています.
研究 の 目的:
- 2050年までに気候変動による食生活や体重の変化による死亡率を推定する.
- 155の世界の地域と様々な排出/社会経済的経路におけるこれらの影響を分析する.
- 気候変動緩和と適応戦略の可能性を評価する.
主な方法:
- 総合農業モデリング (IMPACT) と比較リスク評価
- 評価された果物/野菜と赤肉の消費量と体重の変化
- 4つの排出経路と3つの社会経済経路でモデル化された影響
主要な成果:
- 2050年までに一人当たりの食料の利用率 (3.2%) と果物/野菜の消費率 (4.0%) を減少させる計画
- 気候変動に関連した死亡者数で 52万9千人
- 果物や野菜の摂取量を減らすことで 体重不足よりも多くの死者が発生し,南アジアと東アジアが最も影響を受けた.
結論:
- 食事と体重による 気候変動の健康への影響は大きく 他の推定影響を上回る可能性があります
- 気候変動の緩和は,気候変動による死亡 (29-71%) を大幅に減らすことができます.
- 食事と体重をターゲットにした公衆衛生プログラムは 気候変動への適応戦略として 極めて重要です
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