生物医学文献におけるP値の報告の進化, 1990-2015
David Chavalarias1, Joshua David Wallach2, Alvin Ho Ting Li3
1Centre d'Analyse et de Mathématiques Sociales (CAMS), EHESS-CNRS UMR8557 and Complex Systems Institute of Paris Île-de-France (ISC-PIF, UPS3611), Paris, France.
JAMA
|March 16, 2016
まとめ
生物医学の研究では,P値が増加しており,そのほとんどは統計的に有意であることが示されています. しかし,効果の大きさや信頼区間を含む研究は少ないため,包括的なデータ解釈が困難です.
科学分野:
- バイオ統計学
- 図書館情報
- 科学出版
背景:
- 科学文献におけるP値の解釈と報告は,現在進行中の議論の対象である.
- P値の報告の傾向を理解することは,生物医学研究の質と再現性を評価するために極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 生物医学研究の概要と全文で報告された25年 (1990年−2015年) のP値の大規模な評価を行う.
- P値以外の形式で提示される統計情報の頻度を決定する.
主な方法:
- 1200万件以上のMEDLINE摘要と100万件近くのPubMed Central (PMC) 記事の自動化されたテキストマイニング分析
- 主要な臨床ジャーナルと特定の記事のタイプにおけるP値の報告の評価
- 統計報告の実践のための1000の摘要と100の全文記事のランダムなサンプルを手動で評価する.
主要な成果:
- 概要のP値の報告は1990年の7.3%から2014年の15.6%に大幅に増加した.
- 2014年,P値はメタ解析 (35.7%) とランダム化比較試験 (54.8%) で頻繁に報告されたが,レビューではめったに報告されなかった (2.4%).
- P値を持つ論文の多く (96%) は統計的に有意な結果 (≤0.05) を報告したが,効果サイズ (13.9%) と信頼区間 (2.3%) の報告は低かった.
結論:
- 生物医学文献では,P値の報告が増加傾向にあり,主に統計的有意性を示しています.
- 効果サイズと不確実性指標 (例えば,信頼区間) の利用が著しく不足している.
- この研究では,より堅実な科学的なコミュニケーションのために,P値とともに,効果サイズと不確実性メトリックの報告への移行を推奨しています.
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