中国による地球温暖化への影響
Bengang Li1,2, Thomas Gasser3,4, Philippe Ciais3
1Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
Nature
|March 18, 2016
まとめ
温室効果ガスや黒い炭素による温暖化効果と 硫酸エロゾールの冷却効果により,中国は世界的な放射能強制に10%の貢献をしている. 温室効果ガスの削減によってバランスをとらなければ 将来の空気質の改善が温暖化を加速する可能性があります
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 大気化学
- 環境科学
背景:
- 地球規模の気候変動の緩和は 放射能強制への国の貢献を理解することに 依存しています
- 中国の急速な経済成長は排出量の増加につながりましたが,放射性強制への影響は不明でした.
- "共通だが差異のある責任"の原則は,個々の国の貢献を定量化することを必要とします.
研究 の 目的:
- 世界の放射能への影響を 定量化するためです
- 温室効果ガスの混合,短期的な気候変動,土地利用の変化による貢献を区別する.
- 空気質政策が将来の放射能強制に与える影響を予測する.
主な方法:
- 生物化学と気候モデルを組み合わせた
- 大気シミュレーションのための化学と輸送モデルを使用した.
- CO2,CH4,エアロゾール (硫酸塩,窒素,黒炭) による量化放射力,およびアルベドの変化.
主要な成果:
- 中国は,現在の世界の放射能強制力の10%±4%を占めています.
- ポジティブ (温暖化) フォースリングに12%±2%貢献する (温室効果ガス,ブラックカーボン).
- 負の (冷却) 強制 (硫酸塩,窒素エロゾール) に15%±6%貢献する.
結論:
- 中国の放射能は 地球規模の放射能強制に 大きく影響しています
- 空気の質のために二酸化硫黄を減らすことは 将来の温暖化を増加させるかもしれません
- 温暖化と冷却効果のバランスをとるには 短命の気候要因と 長期的な気候要因の両方を管理する必要があります
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