2013年から2040年までの184カ国の保健支出
Joseph L Dieleman1, Tara Templin1, Nafis Sadat1
1Institute for Heath Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.
Lancet (London, England)
|April 18, 2016
まとめ
世界の医療費は 2040年までに倍増すると予測されていますが 低所得国は高所得国よりも 大きく遅れ続けるでしょう 政策の変更なしでは 医療費の対価が達成されることは不可能で 発展途上国の進歩を阻害します
科学分野:
- 世界保健
- 健康 経済
- 経済学
背景:
- 経済発展は通常,一人当たりの医療費の増加と前払いに関連しています.
- これらの変化のペースと規模は国によって大きく異なります.
- この研究は,過去の傾向と関係に基づいて将来の医療費を予測しています.
研究 の 目的:
- 将来の医療費の見積もりを 資金源別に分けます
- 現在の政策の下での潜在的な医療資金調達経路を特定する.
- 2013年から2040年までの184カ国の医療支出の進化を分析する.
主な方法:
- WHOの保健支出観測所とIHMEの2015年世界保健の資金調達報告書のデータを活用した.
- 共通の購買力パリティとインフレ調整された通貨に調整されたデータ.
- 医療費に対する政府,自費,民間事前払い,開発援助を予測するために,アンサンブルモデルと経験的規範を採用した.
主要な成果:
- 世界保健費は7.83兆ドル (2013年) から18.28兆ドル (2040年) に上昇すると予測されている.
- 一人当たりの医療費の成長率は所得レベルによって変化し,対価が増加する兆候はありません.
- 低所得国は高所得国に費やされる 1 ドルにつき 0.03 ドルを支出し続け,GDPの5%の政府支出目標を達成する国はほとんどいない.
結論:
- 低所得国や中所得国の多くは 国際的な支出目標を達成できないことを示唆している.
- 低所得国と高所得国間の医療支出の格差は,実質的な政策介入なしに縮小する可能性は低い.
- 医療システムの資源を有意義に増やすためには,効率の向上以外に 協調的な政策行動が必要です.
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