南極半島における21世紀の温暖化の欠如は,自然の変動と一致する
John Turner1, Hua Lu1, Ian White1
1British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
Nature
|July 23, 2016
まとめ
南極半島の温暖化は停止し,1990年代後半から顕著な冷却が観察されています. この冷却は地球温暖化ではなく 自然な大気循環の変化に起因しています
科学分野:
- * 大気科学
- * 気候科学
- * 氷河学
背景:
- * 南極半島では1950年代以降,地表近くの気温が著しく上昇しました.
- * この温暖化は 氷河の縮小,氷床の解体,植物の拡大と関連しています
- * 潜在的要因には,オゾン層の減少,海氷の消失,大気圏のテレコネクションの変化が含まれる.
研究 の 目的:
- * 1990年代後半から南極半島における地域的な気温の動向を分析する.
- * 地域における最近の温度変化の要因を調査する.
- * 地域と世界の温度変化の要因の関係を評価する.
主な方法:
- * 傾向分析のために,積み重ねられた温度記録を使用した.
- * 風のパターンと大気循環の変化を分析した.
- * 海氷の誘導パターンを調査した.
主要な成果:
- * 1990年代後半から観測された年間平均気温の統計的に有意な減少
- * 最も顕著な冷却は,南極の夏に起こった.
- * ウェッデル海における東から南東の風の頻度増加とサイクロン条件に関連した冷却
結論:
- * 南極半島における10年間の気温の変化は,主に地球温暖化要因によるものではない.
- * 地域的な冷却は,大気循環の極端な自然的変動に起因する.
- * 中緯度のジェットと海氷の上昇は,冷却効果を強める.
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