中国 の 普遍 的 な 二子 政策 の 影響
1National School of Development and Raissun Institute for Advanced Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China; Center for Study of Aging and Human Development and Geriatrics Division, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Lancet (London, England)
|October 19, 2016
まとめ
中国
科学分野:
- 人口統計
- 公衆衛生政策
- 社会学
背景:
- 中国では2015年10月に 長期にわたる"一人っ子"政策に取って代わる 2人っ子政策を導入しました
- この政策の転換は 人口の不均衡と社会のニーズに対処することを目的とした.
- 以前の人口制御措置は中国の人口構造に大きく影響した.
研究 の 目的:
- 中国で一人っ子制から 2人っ子制への移行が 人口と健康に与える影響を予測する
- 人口構造と健康に及ぼす潜在的利益と長期的な影響を分析する.
- 人口管理と社会福祉に関する将来の政策行動の情報提供
主な方法:
- 最近の人口動向と人口予測の分析
- 人口増加と人口構造に及ぼす影響のモデル化
- 政策の変更に基づく健康改善の可能性を評価する.
主要な成果:
- 2029年には人口が145億人に達すると予測されています.
- この政策により,妊娠中絶が減り,未登録の子供がなくなり,性別比率が正常化すると期待されている.
- 人口の変化によって 健康に良い影響が期待されています
結論:
- 普遍的な二子政策は 生殖に関する選択を許すことで 重要な社会的・健康的な利益をもたらします
- 労働力や人口高齢化に及ぼす長期的な影響は,およそ20年後に明らかになる.
- 人口の高齢化に対応するには 積極的な政策介入が不可欠です
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