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観測された北極海氷の減少は,人類によるCO2排出の直接的な結果である
Dirk Notz1, Julienne Stroeve2,3
1Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany. dirk.notz@mpimet.mpg.de.
まとめ
北極の海氷は二酸化炭素 (CO2) の排出により急速に溶けている. この研究は観測データを用いて 9月に氷のない北極海に 1000ギガトンの二酸化炭素が 流出すると予測しています
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 海洋学
- 環境科学
背景:
- 北極の海氷は急激に減少しています
- 北極海氷の未来を予測するのは 気候モデルのシミュレーションの不一致が原因で困難です
- 氷のない夏の北極海の可能性は 世界的に大きな影響を及ぼします
研究 の 目的:
- 観測データを用いて北極の夏の海氷の未来を推測する.
- 二酸化炭素の排出と海氷の減少との直接的な関係を確立する.
- 海氷の減少を予測する 気候モデルの不確実性に対処するため
主な方法:
- 月間平均の海氷面積と累積的な二酸化炭素 (CO2) 排出量との間の堅固な線形関係を利用した.
- 観測記録から直接 未来の海氷の進化を推論した.
- CO2排出量に対する海氷の損失の感度を定量化しました
主要な成果:
- 9月の海氷面積の3 ± 0.3平方メートルは,排出されたCO2のメトリックトンあたりです.
- 北極の海氷は9月中に 完全に消えてしまうと予測されています さらに1000ギガトンのCO2が 排出されます
- ほとんどの気候モデルでは 観測データと比較して 海氷の損失の感度が低いことが示されています
結論:
- 観測されたデータは 北極の海氷の減少を予測する 信頼できる方法を提供します
- 気候モデルの不一致は,入ってくる長波放射線と一時的な気候反応を過小評価することから生じる可能性があります.
- 北極の海氷の保存には 二酸化炭素排出量の緊急削減が不可欠です
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