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アメリカで最も極端な竜巻の発生に より多くの竜巻
Michael K Tippett1,2, Chiara Lepore3, Joel E Cohen4,5,6
1Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. mkt14@columbia.edu.
まとめ
多くの竜巻の発生頻度が増加しています 特に最も極端な出来事です これらの極端な天候の傾向は 地球温暖化予測と一致しません
科学分野:
- 大気科学
- 気候学
- 極端な天候現象
背景:
- 竜巻 と 激しい 雷雨 は,毎年,米国 で 相当 の 人 の 命 を 奪い,財産 に 損害 を 及ぼし ます.
- 豪雨による保険損失は2016年上半期に85億ドルに達した.
- 竜巻の発生は 隣接する竜巻の連続で アメリカで最も大きな被害を 引き起こしています
研究 の 目的:
- アメリカの竜巻の発生頻度に関する傾向を分析する.
- 疫病の重症度と頻度との関係を調べる
- 極端な竜巻の発生をモデル化するために
主な方法:
- 竜巻発生データを研究するために,極端な値分析が採用されました.
- 時間依存のパラメータを持つ極限値分布がモデリングに使用された.
- 分析では,多十年間の気候変動の指標を考慮した.
主要な成果:
- アメリカでは竜巻の発生頻度が 増加しています
- 極端なアウトブレイクでは 増加率がより高いのです
- 極端な気象環境で観測された上昇傾向は,地球温暖化予測と一致しません.
結論:
- 極端な竜巻の発生は 頻度や強度が増加しています
- 観測された傾向は,現在の地球温暖化予測を超えた要因が 厳しい天候に影響を与えていることを示唆しています.
- 竜巻の発生傾向の要因を理解するには さらに研究が必要です
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